The continuation of the healthy balance between the demand and supply for commercial real estate; a return of traditional investors and lenders; and a significant change in the relationship between brokers and their clients: These arc three trends bankers, brokers and other lenders can expect to shape the commercial real estate into the next century.
These observations come from Mark Tyburski, president of Integrated Loan Services' (ILS) Advisory Group and an executive vice president of ILS.
"With prices at or nearing 100 percent of replacement costs in all major markets and a strong economy, I expect a continuation of the trend of new supply of commercial real estate coming on-line," said this 20-year veteran of the commercial real estate appraisal business. "Properties that look to be The best investments are those that have the least risk of over-supply. They include (most appealing to least): office properties in central business districts; retail regional malls; retail neighborhood centers; R&D; industrial warehouses; suburban offices; apartments; and local retail centers. I expect those trends to continue."
He also predicts the following trends to influence the commercial real estate market for the next few years:
Advertisement
Look for a Landlord's Market: Generally, it will be difficult for tenants to negotiate really favorable rates for space, according to Tyburski. "The current strong demand for space will continue to exceed existing supply," he said. "In some cases, this situation has resulted in significant rent 'spikes' over the past couple of years." Because of the market's high level, Tyburski is advising tenants to avoid making long-term commitments in the current market for most properties, if possible.
Better Deals Coming in the Suburban Office Market: Tyburski expects there to be better deals a year from now in the suburban office market. "There have been more speculative buildings going up in the suburbs, so we anticipate this will create more competition within the next 12 months," he said. "Not so for the industrial and R&D buildings, which are driven by actual commitment and rarely done on speculation."